Research

Near Miss

 

PI/Project Contact:

Ulku Oktem
Wharton Risk Center, University of Pennsylvania

Other faculty:

Warren D. Seider, Dept. of Chemical and Biomoculecular Engineering, University of Pennsylvania

 

 

Project description

Near-Misses are incidents with miminal impact which can help identify and mitigate potential problems and systemic risks. The Near-Miss Project, which started in 2000, initially focused on understanding how such information can help reduce operational risks related to safety, health and environment in chemical industry. Based on over 100 interviews at 20 industrial sites of five Fortune 500 corporations and further revisions of the findings through workshops an eight step process was identified for an effective near-miss program at an industrial site.

Since then, we also extended the concept to address operational risk management issues in financial institutions as an alternative to capital allocation as suggested by the Basel Accord and as a tool to improve the outcome of risk evaluation.

Current research efforts are focused on (a) developing quantitative near-miss models, including modeling the impact of management's behavior, to predict accident potentials in the chemical industry, (b) understanding the role of management in the effectiveness of implementing near-miss systems by conducting focus groups, surveys, and interviews in different chemical manufacturing sites, and (c) utilizing alarm data as near-miss indicators to better assess chemical process risk profile.

Dynamic Risk Analysis Using Alarm Databases to Improve Process Safety and Product Quality: Part II – Bayesian Analysis. AIChE Journal, March 2011

Dynamic Risk Analysis Using Alarm Databases to Improve Process Safety and Product Quality: Part I – Data Compaction. AIChE Journal, March 2011

Near-Miss Management: Managing the Bottom of the Risk Pyramid, Risk & Regulation, magazine of the ESRC Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation, July 2010

Incidents Investigation and Dynamic Analysis of Large Alarm Databases in Chemical Plants: A Fluidized-Catalytic-Cracking Unit Case Study, American Chemical Society -- Ind. Eng. Chem. Res., April 2010

Improving Process Safety and Product Quality Using Large Databases, 20th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering, 2010

Analysis of Management Actions, Human Behavior, and Process Reliability in Chemical Plants, PART I: Impact of Management Actions, Process Safety Progress, July 2007

Analysis of Management Actions, Human Behavior, and Process Reliability in Chemical Plants, PART II: Near-Miss Management System Selection, Process Safety Progress, July 2007

Operational Risk Assessment of Chemical Industries by Exploiting Accident Databases, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2007

Near-Miss Incident Management Systems in the Chemical Process Industry, Risk Analysis. 23; 445-459 (2003)

The Near-Miss Management of Operational Risk, The Journal of Risk and Finance, Fall 2002