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In 2005, box-office receipts were down while
DVD and on-demand revenues are rising. Some
people are now proposing releasing DVDs the
same time as the theatrical release.
I think a better alternative would be secure, high-definition
downloads simultaneous to the theatrical opening, but with
digital rights management technology coding the movie such
that it can be played only for a limited, studio-selected number
of times or number of days. The protection on the files
would keep them from being forwarded or copied.
The distinction between the theatrical release and video release
will disappear, but the video release will be electronic. The
use of VRM will enable studios to control and price it to minimize
the cannibalization of revenues during that time period.
The benefit of using the theatrical advertising not just to
draw people into the cinema but to draw usage in the home
is very seductive. Thus the media can be leveraged against the
much larger audience that goes to the movies.
Do you think this will change the kinds of entertainment
that is made?
Yes, I do. As we develop a home model that scales the media
budget, we will be appealing to a demographic whose tastes and
interests might be very different than the younger generations
that find cinema-going a great escape from staying at home.
I look at this home model as creating an appetite for investing
in story- and character-driven movies that appeal to the pre-,
post-, and actual baby boomers who were the core audiences who
brought about the creative resurgence of cinema in the 1960s and
1970s, but whose tastes are not being met in today's market.
Advertising-dependent television has been dominated by
the youth market, as well as theatrical films. The home distribution
will create access to a new market because in lieu of
the constraints of distributionthe theaters and networks as
gatekeepersdistribution will be ubiquitous on the Internet.
The economics are yet to be decided because until you
know the consumer reaction, it's hard to predict the production
budgets. But arguably the costs of production would go
down, because technology is transforming production and
post-production as well, lending the medium to more productions
of specialized programming.
It's clear that the television model is also going to change.
The disruptive technology of the personal digital video recorder,
downloads to portable devices, and video on demand
is going to challenge consumer audiences. The movie model is
going to change based on this continued progression of personalization
where the user is the programmer and no one else.
If you create a distribution model that is direct between the
content and consumer and it's not filtered through the economics
of running a cinema or selling advertising, the content
will determine the length and format, not business metrics.
There are no magical number of pages in a book, so I don't
know why there has to be a magic number of minutes for a
movie or a television program.
Access to content at your schedule, your location, your
device will be the next generation of the dissemination of entertainment.
As someone who loves movies, that's something I
look forward to.
Interview by Kelly J. Andrews, editor of Wharton Alumni
Magazine.
Michael Milken: Financier for a Cure
More than 30 years ago, philanthropist, financier and
Wharton School alumnus Michael Milken, WG'70,
began applying the innovations he developed during his
studies at Wharton to revolutionize modern capital markets,
bringing new financing strategies to fund companies. The
thousands of companies he financed created millions of jobs,
and the financing markets continue to bear his imprint.
Just a few years after starting in business, Milken began
using his business innovations in philanthropy. Today he is
ranked not only as one of the leading economic innovators
in this country, but also as one of the most generous living
Americans. During the past 30 years, he and his family have
given more than $750 million to medical research and education.
Their Milken Family Foundation has created models in
how philanthropy can advance education, youth programs,
inner cities solutions, pediatric neurology, and treatments for
various forms of cancer.
Milken recently spoke with Wharton Alumni Magazine
about how he is using new business models to fund and
drive medical research toward cures and treatments for serious
diseases.
You created a revolution in capital markets and
now you have had this extraordinary success
funding medical research. How does your approach
differ from the traditional approach and
why does it work?
It took 20 years to figure it out, so there was a lot of trial and
error along the way. I began working on this aggressively in
1972 when my mother-in-law was diagnosed with breast
cancer, and then really in earnest in the mid-1970s when my
father was diagnosed with a melanoma.
The approach has been to recruit human capital. The concept
is that getting the best people gets the best results. How?
I have three key approaches to encouraging the most talented
people to participate.
The first thing we did this was to change the awards process.
With our foundations, a person can apply for grants
knowing that we promise to read only the first five pages
of their application. They could submit a nine-foot-tall
stack of papers, but we're only going to read the first five
pages. And we promise to let them know if they're going
to be funded in 60 days and give them their money within
90. Many people who were very busy, or Nobel Prize winners
who wonder why they should get involved with a
lengthy or difficult application process, or people that had
a unique idea, would not normally apply for grants from
the National Institutes for Health or the National Cancer
Institute because they have no proven data to give them.
By allowing them to present their ideas to us in five pages,
people didn't have to prepare for months for this mission,
and they had quick responses on whether they'd be funded
or not. This strategy really worked well. It's gotten people
involved who might otherwise not have gotten involved in
these forms of research.
The second approach is that we literally did fund things
based on the future, not the past. So we funded ideas, from
the standpoint of worthy venture medical research, to get
someone started. Once their work is underway they can
then be funded by the National Institutes of Health or the
National Cancer Institute or in some cases biotech companies
or pharmaceutical companies.
The third thing is that we collaborate and make them
share. We interact with these individuals anywhere from one
to four years, we hold them accountable for what they're doing,
and we bring them together periodically with others to
share their information.
This was a difficult proposition for some researchers. Many
people felt their work so important, they were waiting to get
it published, they were waiting for credit, and they didn't
want to share it. In those cases, I told them that if their work
was so important, I'm sure they wouldn't have a difficulty getting
funding from someone else. I told them our funds were
for individuals whose work wasn't that important and needed
our funding. Within a year everyone was willing to share their
information.
I think bringing
together a critical mass
at individual
centers is a very important
piece in innovation.
Creating a therapy consortium,
where institutions
would share with
one another, has
made a big difference.
When it began, people felt they were competitors. We explained to
them that for the patient there are no competitors.
Looking back now a few decades, are you able
to see mistakes that you made, lessons you may
have learned, strategies or processes you have
been able to develop?
One of the things we've always done is identify key researchers
in a laboratory and give them awards, so they don't have to
take a vow of poverty. That's been our thrust and strategy.
In general this has been very effective, with one exception:
When we give senior people these awards, I would have to
say that 30 years later, the benefits of that decision are hard
to justify. I don't believe that was a good social investment.
When I look at what was done by our young investigators,
they were far more productive than the people near the peak,
near the back ends of their careers.
If you look at Nobel Prize winners, if you look at my own
work, most of the ideas, say for today's modern capital markets,
came out of my studies at Berkeley and Wharton. Most
Nobel Prize winners get Nobel Prizes in science or economics
for the work they did within five years of going to school.
They might get the recognition 30 years later, but the ideas
occurred much earlier. Today we're much more focused on
young investigators who are still deciding what to do with
their career. The average age of a first grant from the National
Cancer Institute is somewhere between 42 and 44 years of
age. Well, that's long after a person's has reached their peak in
knowledge, in terms of going to school, getting a PhD, MD.
It's extremely discouraging, if you're 29 or 30 years old, you've
spent 12 years in a university setting, and the average age
is another 10 to 15 years before you're going to get a grant.
Our goal was to encourage these individuals.
The second mistake we
made was that
early on, I felt that giving a
researcher an inspirational
speech, an award
ceremony, and money was enough. We
discovered later there was a lot
more work that had to be done to help people. This was primarily
supporting interaction for them between nonprofits
and for profits, dealing with bureaucratic issues and getting
clinical trials going.
Scientists and business people are often dispassionate
about the people affected by their work,
whether they are conducting basic scientific
research or weighing a financial decision. Your
funding of cancer research has at times seemed
very personal. Is this a benefit?
It is personal, and not just for me. I would say at least one in two
people went into medical philanthropy because of their personal
disease, their children's disease, their brother or sister, their parents,
or a friend. Many of them were successful entrepreneurs or
businessmen, and have completely diverted their careers or partially
diverted what they were doing to drive organizations that
are disease specific. I always say it is personal. I've lost 10 relatives
to cancer. I lost my father to cancer. I've lost four relatives
to brain tumors. My children had certain health challenges. I've
spent nights lying on the floor in hospitals like others have.
Today I try to talk to anywhere from one to five individuals
who have been diagnosed with cancer a day. This gives me
a focus on the person who has just been diagnosed, who obviously
is on the edge. I try to understand what they're thinking,
what they're learning, and it also gives a fresh perspective
on how a person reacts and what knowledge is available. Last
week a young man who I knew well died of cancer. This was
despite all of our efforts and despite who I believe was the
best doctor in this field and despite his access to treatment.
Everything we could do in 2005 was still not enough for
him. The numbers of people touched by disease are so large it
might seem like it's not personal, but I think everyone, every
person who is sick and needs care, is personal.
There are other philanthropists trying to affect
health. What is unique about your work?
Some people have chosen other paths. The Gates Foundation
particularly has been focused on bringing medical care and
solutions that are proven to people that haven had access to
them, in Africa, for example. My focus here has really been
to search for medical solutions to problems that have not
been solved. I find that intellectually stimulating, emotionally
stimulating, personally rewarding, and very challenging.
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to build lasting partnerships focused on the development of regional and global markets.
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With more than 80,000 alumni living and working in 140 countries around the world, the Wharton School has the largest international business
school alumni network. Our alumni lead major global firms, run successful entrepreneurial ventures,
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bring their own live case studies to Wharton professors for answers.
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